What I am watching in the market this week

The S&P 500 hit 7,473 last week. VIX is at 16.7, historically low. Nvidia just printed 85% revenue growth. SpaceX IPO is in 2 weeks. The Fed has 4 dissenters in 30 years of records. Tariffs are at 11.7%. Six different macro catalysts are stacked in a 14-day window. Here are the 5 things I am actually watching and the 3 things I am ignoring.

The market noise-to-signal ratio is worse in 2026 than at any point since 2020, and the discipline of knowing what to watch and what to ignore is your edge.

1. SpaceX IPO open price on June 12. A first-day open above $2T floor signals retail FOMO at extremes. Below floor signals institutional caution. Either tells you a lot about risk appetite.

2. Marvell earnings May 27. Custom silicon revenue line item + Google partnership confirmation could rerate the entire AI semis complex. (Full thesis here)

3. Powell vs Warsh confirmation noise. Whoever takes the Fed chair determines the next 2 years of policy reaction function. Watch for committee announcements or surprise nominations.

4. Tariff Supreme Court ruling. Expected early 2026. Any leak or scheduling announcement moves markets immediately.

5. Nvidia GTC announcements and Blackwell shipping cadence. Drives the entire AI infrastructure narrative.

1. Daily VIX prints under 20. Low VIX is a state, not a signal. It does not predict the next move in either direction.

2. Every financial influencer's "the top is in" call. Half of finance Twitter has been calling the top since 2023. They will eventually be right and take credit. Ignore them.

3. Routine economic data prints (CPI, PPI, NFP) unless they materially miss in either direction. The marginal change is usually noise within the broader trend.

Core S&P 500 exposure intact. 20% cash and short Treasuries yielding 4.5%. Overweight AI infrastructure picks-and-shovels (MRVL, ARM). Specific bets on reshoring (USAR) and space (RKLB). Holding Tesla through SpaceX IPO volatility.

Six macro catalysts in 14 days means more daily volatility, more headlines, more reasons to do something stupid. The investors who do best in periods like this don't watch more, they watch better and trade less.

Read next: SpaceX IPO June 12 | The Biggest Fed Split Since 1992

*⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Mentorsurge is not a financial advisor. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice.*