SpaceX IPO June 12: The Largest Listing in History. What to Actually Do.

SpaceX goes public June 12 at a projected $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation, raising up to $75 billion. Revenue in the most recent reported period was $46.94 billion. This is the largest IPO in the history of global capital markets, and Polymarket assigns a 61% implied probability to the valuation landing in that $1.75T to $2T range. Every young investor I know is asking the same question: do I buy on day one?

My answer, and the playbook behind it, comes down to one sentence: the biggest IPO ever will get bid up by retail FOMO on day one, sold by institutions taking profits, and find its real price 30 to 60 days later. The edge is in waiting for that price.

The single most important structural fact: 30% of the IPO allocation is being made available to retail investors. That is roughly three times the typical retail allocation on a deal this size. Musk wants his retail base on the cap table, and he is getting it.

Think through the mechanics. Triple the usual retail demand funnels into the open. That is massive day-one buying pressure. Then come the lockup unwinds and institutional profit-taking over the following 60 days. Early holders who bought private shares at a fraction of the IPO price get their first chance to sell. The buyers are emotional. The sellers are not. That collision is what sets prices in the first two months, and it has nothing to do with rockets.

The biggest, most hyped listings have a consistent pattern. Facebook, Uber, Lyft, Snowflake: all gave back significant gains in the first 60 days after going public. The reason is structural, not bad luck. An IPO is the one transaction where the seller controls the timing, the marketing, and the price. Banks price these deals to maximize proceeds for the company and the insiders. By definition, you are buying at the moment chosen because it is best for the other side of the trade.

None of that means SpaceX is a bad company. It means day one is historically the worst-odds entry the market offers.

Starlink is approaching ubiquity, with over 5 million active subscribers as of late 2025. Starship economics, if reusability is fully validated, completely rewrite the unit cost of getting payload to orbit. Defense contracts grow every quarter, and the DoD has zero appetite to reduce SpaceX dependence in the next 24 months. The company holds a near-monopoly on US sovereign launch. This is a generational business. The question was never quality. The question is price and timing.

A $2 trillion valuation puts SpaceX at the same market cap as some of the largest companies on earth on day one, against $46.94 billion of reported revenue. The forward earnings math is aggressive at best. With expectations set that high, any Starship cadence disappointment or Starlink subscriber growth miss in the first two quarterly prints hits the stock hard. Great company, demanding price. Both things are true.

This is what I am actually doing, laid out so you can pressure-test it.

Step one: nothing on day one. No market orders into the open. Ever.

Step two: read the S-1 while everyone else watches the ticker. The Starship and Starlink operational metrics in the filing versus the whisper numbers on financial Twitter will tell you how much hope is in the price.

Step three: watch the 7-day, 30-day, and 60-day prices, plus the day-one open versus the $1.75T floor of the projected range. Let the lockup-driven volatility clear.

Step four: watch the first earnings print as a public company. Does reported revenue and growth actually justify the valuation the market settled on?

Step five: decide with data instead of adrenaline.

A hypothetical to make it concrete. Say someone has $1,000 earmarked for this. Deploying it in thirds, one after the 30-day dust settles, one after the first earnings print, one held back for a genuine selloff, means no single mistimed decision can wreck the plan. Compare that to the person who puts the full $1,000 in at the day-one open because the line was going up. Same money, completely different risk.

What if it just goes up and never comes back? Possible. Then you pay a higher price later for more information, including a real earnings print. That is a fair trade. Missing the first 20% of a 10-year story costs little. Buying a 30% drawdown at the open costs a lot.

Is the Polymarket 61% number useful? As a sentiment gauge, yes. It tells you the market expects pricing at the ambitious end. It tells you nothing about where the stock trades in 60 days.

What about indirect plays? The second-source launch thesis is a separate trade. I covered Rocket Lab on exactly that question.

The largest IPO ever deserves respect, not reflexes. The company is historic. The setup is engineered for the seller. I am watching the open, reading the filing, and letting the first 60 days tell me what the crowd paid for hope. Patience is a position too.

Read next: TSLA: The SpaceX IPO Shadow | RKLB Stock: Rocket Lab Bull Case

*Disclaimer: MentorSurge is not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. This post is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. IPO investing carries elevated risk including extreme price volatility and limited history as a public company. Investing involves substantial risk of loss. Numbers cited were accurate when written and change constantly. Always do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making decisions with real money.*